12:54PM:
I am in the media section with great seats in the back of the ground floor. I have seen and been greeted by too many to mention but I will mention one or two as I listen to the Lieutenant Governor candidates. I shout out to Del. Peace who provided the Hanover delegation with a box lunch (I am a delegate, too) and a free lunch is great. Del. Peace is one of our finest members of the legislature in VA. I also shout out to Loudoun County Supervisor (Sterling District) Eugene Delguardio who will let me know if the county is OUT of ICLEI!
I have not heard all the speakers but I think Pete Snyder, Bishop Jackson and yes, Corey Stewart, Chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, seems to have the best turnout so far. But we’ll see what will happen.
1:13PM:
Del. Rob Bell just had an excellent video starting with an abused spouse who Bell as a prosecutor fought for again and again until her stalking, abusive former husband finally left her alone. Bell also had several people, including Del. Rich Anderson (a fine delegate), Senator Tom Garrett and others talk about how the property rights constitutional amendment. It lost until Bell persuaded a Democrat to support it. Very effective.
Senator Obenshain did a short video honored his father and had several others to introduce him including Del. Terry Kilgore, Donna Holt and Mike Farris. Very effective. His demonstration is pretty broad. I still think Obenshain will win. But we’ll see. Maybe Del. Bell has positioned himself for future run statewide.
Senator (My senator!) McDougle just came by to say hello!
There are 8,094 delegates eligible to vote at this convention.
2:16PM:
Still voting in first ballot. I voted for Bishop Jackson and Del. Bell. Awaiting the count. My prediction is for the first ballot that Sen. Obenshain will win the AG’s race by a 54-46 margin. No majority in the LG race. That Corey Stewart will be first, followed by Bishop Jackson or maybe Pete Snyder. The final two who will not be on the second round ballot will be Senator Martin and Jeannemarie Davis. If there is a surprise, it will be a Bell victory and Del. Lingamfelter finishing in the top three.
Well see….
3:10PM:
It’s unconfirmed but Congressman Goodlatte says he’ll look into overcriminalization. GOOD! Find some useless laws and get rid of them or amend them.
3:38PM:
Still not confirmed from deep, deep background but Bishop Jackson may be out in front with nearly 40%; the AG race sounds like Obenshain. But that is not I repeat NOT confirmed.
3:46PM:
They just stated that the announcement is coming up very shortly. So much for ninety minutes!
5:24PM!
First ballot! Obenshain did win and Del. Bell made a nice concession by moving that Sen. Obenshain be nominated by acclamation. Very classy. I spoke with Del. Bell and encouraged him a bit that he is still a great voice in the House of Delegates.
BUT the story is the LG’s race: Not at all what I expected. Susan Stimpson came in second with just over 15% but was far behind the leader: Bishop Jackson at 31%! Corey Stewart and Pete Snyder are essentially tied at just under 15% and Del. Lingamfelter has 11.5% for fifth. The two dropping out after the first ballot were as expected Senator Steve Martin and former state senator Jeannemarie Davis. Davis actually beat Martin 7.2% to 5.5%.
Here is the raw weighted numbers:
Jackson 3732.31 (31.3)
Stimpson 1798.43 (15.1)
Stewart 1769.14 (14.8)
Snyder 1739.17 (14.6)
Lingamfelter 1375.18 (11.5)
Davis 861.68 (7.2)
Martin 662.1 (5.5)
6:22PM:
Awaiting the results but there is a major demonstration on the floor for Bishop Jackson with a smaller counter-demonstration for Pete Snyder. Jackson clearly has the enthusiasm of those who support him. We’ll see…
Now the Stimpson forces are out but not in Jackson numbers. Same for the Stewart people. Unconfirmed reports say that no one got more than 40% and third ballot will occur. There also are many delegates have left but the weighted vote remains the same. There was a paper airplane that went from one side of the Coliseum to the other. Who says we couldn’t have liberated Benghazi!
6:40PM:
Excitement is building! I just got hit with a paper airplane – it hurt a bit, too! I met both Del. Habeeb (I told him I prayed for him once a month!) who is an attorney with the prestigious Gentry Locke firm in Roanoke. Also met for the first time former Del. Janis. I admire Del. Janis very much primarily due to his confession of faith in Jesus Christ at an African-American church in January 2011.
6:50PM:
Unconfirmed numbers show a substantial Jackson lead:
4562.05 weighted votes for Bishop Jackson with 38.2%.
Pete Snyder brought his campaign from near death with a second place showing – 2071.09 with Corey Stewart closely behind at 1999.51 weighted votes. This would mean that Susan Stimpson, second place after the first vote, is out along with Del. Lingamfelter.
UPDATE: If true, this means that Jackson has a good chance of winning unless the anti-Jackson vote picks one candidate to get behind. Stewart is so polarizing that it is hard to see the anti-Jackson vote doing that but maybe Snyder could get that support. I think Snyder is the only one that can beat Jackson. It is like these Southern primaries where the leader had to win on the first primary or face being beat by the second place, buoyed by the other candidates’ supporters. I heard from a Snyder delegate that Lingamfelter had endorsed Snyder so maybe that is the establishment trying to keep Jackson from winning.
Again, these are not confirmed numbers!
UPDATE AGAIN: Will Tom White treat Sandy to fish and chips at Penny Lane Pub for all this an analysis!
7:17PM:
The numbers are very close to what we said earlier. Lingamfelter and Stimpson are out of the running. I am hearing that others are trying to gang up on Jackson. Jackson is reportedly upset about it. Lingamfelter did endorse Snyder.
8:07PM:
Martha Bonita, the Fauquier County farmer whose issues Del. Lingamfelter came out for Corey Stewart. The story is the anti-establishment tone of the convention – Obenshain was a degree of nostalgia but I am told that the senator had sometimes defied his party too. (Bell was definitely anti-establishment) I see the Jackson and Snyder, neither of whom have ever heard public office before, vote as clearly anti-establishment.
Pending! I think either Jackson wins on this ballot or Snyder wins on the final one.
8:14PM:
A huge cheer arose just a moment ago from the Pete Snyder section. Now they have started a brief demonstration.
8:28PM:
Is it ominous for Jackson? Cheering, I mean loud cheering from the Snyder delegation and the Jackson forces are quiet.
UPDATE: I heard someone say: One more ballot to go! Could be bad news for Jackson.
I think it is between Pete Snyder and Bishop Jackson.
8:48PM:
Shouts from the Pete demonstration that Corey Stewart had endorsed Pete Snyder. If so, that means we could see a huge comeback for Snyder who positioned himself as the one that no one hated and the last one standing. But it is not a sure thing. Jackson could still win. We have no numbers.
9:00PM:
Now flyers are out saying both Corey Stewart and the AG nominee Mark Obenshain have endorsed Pete Snyder. (Official blog rubbing it in: VR endorsed Bishop Jackson and Pete Snyder for first place tie!)
9:27PM:
It’s official! Jackson nearly had a majority with 49.7% and Snyder is a strong second with 30.6%. Stewart is OUT! Fourth ballot.
Sandy must go early but I think Jackson will eek it out in a victory. I am hearing that some of the Pete endorsements are not authorized but that is an unconfirmed report. I cannot imagine Snyder would do that. Signing off until tomorrow.
Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders
About Elwood Sanders
Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)
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